Where housing prices are heading (2026-2028): what matters in Seville and Andalusia

Spain’s housing market has been rising for more than a decade. From the 2015 low, the national average has regained the ground lost after the bubble and, in many cities, surpassed it. The question owners and investors in Seville ask us is always the same: how far can it go?

The data does not tell a single story. It points to a correction in the most expensive provinces and a moderate recovery in the cheaper ones. This is not a crash. It is mean reversion — and for anyone living or investing in Andalusia, the nuance matters.

The thesis in one sentence

Areas that stretched prices the most in the latest cycle tend to cool. Areas that start from more contained levels have more upside. The market as a whole does not collapse: the median trend sits around -3.7% cumulative over two years, a moderate correction of roughly -1.9% annualised.

Where these readings come from

We work with official provincial appraisal series (MITMA) and notarial statistics by postal code. We clean incomplete quarters, project the direction of value over a two-year horizon and read the signal by province and area. It is not an oracle: it is a map of trends, with nuance and uncertainty.

What matters to an owner is not the formula. It is the direction, the order of magnitude, and what it implies for the decision to sell, hold or buy.

Provinces rising most… and those falling most

The pattern is clear: provinces with more contained prices and less compressed markets. Córdoba, Jaén or Badajoz are not “magic bargains”; they are markets that start from lower levels and where the data sees recovery room on the order of 8-11% over two years.

At the other end sit the expensive provinces and those that rose most in the recent cycle. Madrid, Tenerife or Valencia lead the expected correction in appraisal value. We are not talking about a one-day collapse: the direction plays out over several quarters. But the signal is unambiguous.

About 60% of postal codes show a downward trend, 17% upward, and the rest stay stable. Overall, this is an uneven cooling — not a national collapse.

Andalusia and Seville: read the map without national averages

This is where the zoom matters. Andalusia is not a single block.

• Córdoba and Jaén appear among the provinces with the most upside. For a medium-horizon investor, that strengthens the value thesis in less stretched Andalusian markets.
• Málaga sits in the correction group, consistent with years of strong growth and already high prices across much of the coast.
• Seville sits in an intermediate position on the national board: more volume and liquidity than many inland capitals, with average prices still far from Madrid or the hottest coastline. It is neither the epicentre of the correction nor of the strongest recovery.

That has a practical reading. If you own a good property in Seville — Huerta de la Salud, consolidated neighbourhoods, an asset with real demand — you should not decide based on a Madrid headline. You should decide based on comparables in your postal code, the condition of the asset, local liquidity and your own calendar (tax, reinvestment, need for cash).

The national average does not sell your flat. Neither does Madrid’s. In Seville, the market is still local: street, typology, renovation and timing.

What to do if you are an owner or investor

If you are thinking of selling

The data does not shout “sell at any price now”. It says that waiting “for it to rise a bit more” is not a strategy in already stretched areas. If your property is well positioned and you have a clear reason to sell (relocation, inheritance, reinvestment), a price anchored to real data is usually smarter than months on a portal waiting for a theoretical peak.

Valuing before listing remains the first step. A defensible range avoids the anchor of a shop-window price and lets you negotiate with criteria.

If you plan to hold

A paper correction is not a realised loss. If you are not selling and not fragile on leverage, two years of cooling noise weighs less than the quality of the asset and its rental or use capacity. In Seville, properties with structural demand (location, livability, efficiency, sensible ticket size) remain living wealth, not a ticker.

If you want to buy or invest

Selective patience. In expensive markets, the entry point may improve in 12-18 months. In more contained Andalusian markets — with Córdoba as a clear example of upside — the opportunity is not “buy anything cheap”, but choose well: less blind competition, more due diligence, and a preference for assets with real exit liquidity.

In areas with few transactions, the statistical signal is weaker. There, professional guidance and quality comparables matter more than the provincial headline.

How we think about price at Sadana

At Sadana we do not publish forecasts to feed the noise. We interpret the market to help owners and investors decide: when to exit, at what range, with what discretion and with which buyer.

The 2026-2028 trend reinforces something we already see day to day: the cycle does not reward improvisation. It rewards knowing what your property is worth today, on your street, in front of real buyers — not against a portal average.

Want to know what this trend means for your property? Use our online valuation tool or get in touch. We help you read the data as a decision, not a headline.

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Market reading based on official appraisal series (MITMA) and notarial statistics. Indicative horizon 2026-2028. Analysis date: 15 August 2026. Statistical estimates for orientation only; not financial advice.